Annual Energy Outlook 2025

Figure: Long-term projections for supply and production of hydrogen

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2025

According to the latest Annual Energy Outlook 2025 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, even when accounting for the IRA incentives prior to the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, hydrogen produced from natural gas remains dominated in the long-term outlook.

📊 By 2050, the majority of H2 in the U.S. is projected to be produced from natural gas via steam methane reforming (SMR). Less than 1% is expected to come from electrolyzers, despite supportive policies.

➡️ Full analysis: Natural gas remains the largest source of hydrogen in our long-term projections

Yet, this contrasts with the vision laid out in the U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, which foresees a more diverse production mix — including electrolysis, fossil-based hydrogen with CCS, and biomass/waste-derived hydrogen, playing key roles through at least 2050.

The key takeaway: Ambition and reality are still not fully aligned, when it comes to scaling up green hydrogen.

➡️ Source: U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap