Pacific Northwest Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis

Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis. Federal Initiatives across the Canada and the United States. Canada and United States support initiatives and value chain applicability

Figure: Canada and United States support initiatives and value chain applicability

Pacific Northwest Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis, published by The Pacific Northwest Economic Region (PNWER), provides a comprehensive view of supply, demand and trade opportunities for low-carbon hydrogen between the US and Canada.

βœ… Some takeaways

πŸ“Œ Canada:

  • has a total of 19 direct or indirect support programs available to accelerate the development and deployment of hydrogen technologies and industry across the value chain.
  • Tax measures such as the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit (ITC), Clean Technology ITC, Clean Technology Manufacturing ITC, and the Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) ITC are complemented by funding programs such as the Clean Fuels Fund and Strategic Innovation Fund – Net-Zero Accelerator.

πŸ“Œ The US:

  • has a total of 34 direct or indirect federal programs and initiatives across multiple national departments and agencies, which enable the use of hydrogen across the value chain.
  • The US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates the blending of renewable fuels into the supply of transportation fuels, with an aim at reducing overall GHG emissions from the sector. While the RFS primarily focuses on biofuels, it also includes provisions for hydrogen derived from renewable feedstocks, like biomass, which generates an economic incentive for the transportation sector to include low-carbon hydrogen in its pathways to decarbonization.

➑️ Source: New report: Pacific Northwest Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis

African Green Hydrogen Report

African Green Hydrogen Report

African Green Hydrogen Report, published by GIZ, is available via this link.

βœ… Some key takeaways

πŸ“Œ Export Potential:

  • Several African countries are developing ambitious green hydrogen export strategies aimed at European and Asian markets.
  • Tunisia, Namibia, Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa aim to have annual exports of more than 20 million tons of green hydrogen equivalent by 2050.

πŸ“Œ Policy and regulation:

  • By February 2025, eight African countries – Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa and Tunisia – have adopted hydrogen strategies and/or roadmaps.
  • Main challenge is a lack of the required comprehensive regulatory frameworks to translate these strategies into action.

πŸ“Œ Financing projects:

  • Almost 80% of the public funding for GH2 projects in Africa came from Europe, with Germany accounting for 13% of total funding.
  • Only a small fraction of announced large-scale African hydrogen projects have reached final investment decisions.

πŸ“Œ Sustainability considerations:

  • Electricity and water sustainability are key concerns for green hydrogen projects, particularly in arid regions.
  • As environmental standards evolve, emerging certification schemes demand strict water use, land access, and emissions compliance.

Roundtable Discussion: Green Hydrogen, Equal Opportunities

Roundtable Discussion: Green Hydrogen, Equal Opportunities. H2-diplo

I will be joining as a speaker at this important event: 🌍 Roundtable Discussion: Green Hydrogen, Equal Opportunities!

This roundtable organized by the H2-diplo – Decarbonization Diplomacy in close cooperation with the Women’s Energy Club of Ukraine. We will discuss the role of women in shaping the green hydrogen sector and the development of this emerging industry.

I look forward to contributing to the dialogue and hearing diverse perspectives on how Ukraine can leverage hydrogen for both its energy transition and equal opportunities.

πŸ”ŽThe agenda will include an introduction to the green hydrogen sector and recent related research on Ukraine with inputs from different experts. Following this, a special focus will be put on how the development of a new sector can open doors for women and their career growth with women sharing their own experiences. Eventually, all participants are invited to share their perspectives on the potential of the green hydrogen sector in Ukraine and on what is needed to make it long-lasting, inclusive, and sustainable.

πŸ“… 28 August 2025
πŸ•š 10:00 – 13:30 EEST (09:00 – 12:30 CEST)
πŸ“Œ Location: Online

πŸ‘‰ Register now here.

Annual Energy Outlook 2025

Long-term projections: total hydrogen supplied to market, 2023-2050, hydrogen produced via steam methane reforming, 2023-2050

Figure: Long-term projections for supply and production of hydrogen

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2025

According to the latest Annual Energy Outlook 2025 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, even when accounting for the IRA incentives prior to the β€œOne Big Beautiful Bill Act”, hydrogen produced from natural gas remains dominated in the long-term outlook.

πŸ“Š By 2050, the majority of H2 in the U.S. is projected to be produced from natural gas via steam methane reforming (SMR). Less than 1% is expected to come from electrolyzers, despite supportive policies.

➑️ Full analysis: Natural gas remains the largest source of hydrogen in our long-term projections

Yet, this contrasts with the vision laid out in the U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, which foresees a more diverse production mix β€” including electrolysis, fossil-based hydrogen with CCS, and biomass/waste-derived hydrogen, playing key roles through at least 2050.

The key takeaway: Ambition and reality are still not fully aligned, when it comes to scaling up green hydrogen.

➑️ Source: U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap

EU Hydrogen Auction

Hydrogen Bank. Innovation Fund IF25 Hydrogen Auction. Draft Terms and Conditions

πŸ“’ New EU Hydrogen Auction – Draft Terms & Conditions Open for Feedback

The European Commission has published the draft Terms & Conditions (T&Cs) for the IF25 Hydrogen Auction, the third call under the European Hydrogen Bank, set to launch by the end of 2025.

β˜‘οΈ What’s new in this round?

Proposed Budget: EUR 1.1 billion, split across three topics:

  • Topic 1: EUR 400 million – RFNBO and/or electrolytic low-carbon hydrogen
  • Topic 2: EUR 400 million – RFNBO hydrogen only
  • Topic 3: EUR 200 million – RFNBO and/or electrolytic low-carbon hydrogen for maritime applications

β˜‘οΈ Key Updates:

πŸ“Œ Broader Scope: Support extended to include electrolytic low-carbon hydrogen alongside RFNBOs

πŸ“Œ Electrolyser Resilience: Aligned with the NZIA Implementing Act (C(2025) 2900), simplifying some earlier resilience criteria

πŸ“Œ Environmental Screening: New evaluation against Do-No-Significant-Harm (DNSH) principles

πŸ“Œ No Double Funding: Projects already funded under the Innovation Fund or other EU sources are not eligible

πŸ“Œ Electricity Sourcing Plan: Projects must show a credible strategy for sourcing 100% of required electricity. For low-carbon hydrogen, at least 60% of non-renewable input must meet the 70% emissions savings threshold defined in Directive (EU) 2024/1788.

➑️ What’s next?

  • Stakeholder feedback will be gathered through the consultation
  • Feedback will be incorporated into the final design of the auction
  • The final version of T&Cs will be published with the auction launch in Q4 2025

πŸ—“ Feedback deadline: 14 September 2025

πŸ“„ Draft Terms & Conditions available here: Innovation Fund IF25 Hydrogen Auction. Draft Terms and Conditions

πŸ’¬ Provide feedback here: IF25 Auction – Draft T&Cs public consultation

News on the Hydrogen and Guarantees of Origin Market

hydrogen and guarantees of origin (GO) system

The latest EU report titled “Technical assistance to monitor functioning of the guarantees of origin (GO) system” provides an in-depth look at the GOs market and its impact on renewable energy and hydrogen tracking.

βœ… Key Takeaways

πŸ“Œ The GO market has achieved a healthy level of liquidity.

πŸ“Œ While transparency has improved, price discovery remains limited. GO prices vary based on factors such as technology, region, and additionality – factors not always visible to consumers. Forecasting prices remains difficult due to elements of monopolistic competition.

πŸ“Œ More than 90% of hydropower, 50% of wind, and 30% of solar electricity production in Europe is currently tracked via GOs.

πŸ“Œ The GO system is effective in tracking renewable electricity, but further harmonization is needed to reduce the risk of misuse.

πŸ“Œ Hydrogen

  • As of the end of 2023: only 0.4% of EU hydrogen production was based on water electrolysis (45 tonnes or 1.5 GWh).
  • An additional 9.2% (1,033 tonnes or 34 GWh) was produced as a green by-product (e.g., from chlor-alkali electrolysis).
  • The Hydrix index (as of January 2025) estimates green hydrogen prices in Germany at €7.80–€9.50/kg, roughly 2.5x higher than grey hydrogen (€3–€4/kg).

πŸ“Œ Hydrogen GO trading volumes

  • RFNBO certification has only been possible since December 2024.
  • Until now, certified green hydrogen has only been traded via GOs or Non-Governmental Certificates (NGCs).
  • Assuming certification, 1,500 GOs could have been issued in 2023 for hydrogen produced via electrolysis.
  • While only a few EU Member States are active in the gas GO market and even fewer support EU-wide GO trading, interest in GOs is growing:
    • Smaller projects often opt for GOs/NGCs due to lack of RFNBO compliance.
    • Larger projects (many pre-FID) are preparing for RFNBO certification to benefit from offtake obligations under the compliance market.

➑️ Source: Technical assistance to monitor functioning of the guarantees of origin (GO) system

Association of Issuing Bodies Annual Report 2024

Association of Issuing Bodies members, applicants and observers

Figure: Association of Issuing Bodies members, applicants and observers

Source: Association of Issuing Bodies, Annual Report 2024

πŸ“’ The Association of Issuing Bodies (AIB) Annual Report 2024 is out!

βœ… Key highlights from 2024:

πŸ“Œ Membership Expansion

  • By the end of 2024, the AIB had 39 members from 30 European countries, covering the EU, EEA, and Energy Community.

πŸ“Œ Electricity Guarantees of Origin

  • 30 members actively participated in the European Energy Certificate System (EECS) Electricity Scheme, issuing and transferring GOs via the AIB Hub.
  • New participants preparing for the scheme:
    • NEURC (Ukraine)
    • ERE (Albania)
    • SEDA (Bulgaria)
  • New observers:
    • ERO (Kosovo)
    • MEMO (North Macedonia)

πŸ“Œ Gas Guarantees of Origin

  • 9 members were active in the EECS Gas Scheme, including:
    • Gasgrid (Finland)
    • Enagas (Spain)
    • Brugel (Belgium)
    • E-Control (Austria)
    • GSE (Italy)
    • REN (Portugal)
    • OTE (Czech Republic)
    • Elering (Estonia)
    • Conexus (Latvia)
  • 2024 was a milestone year for the Gas Scheme Group, with six new members joining.

πŸ“Œ Hydrogen

In 2024, the following countries registered EECS hydrogen production devices:

  • Austria: 2 devices (10 MW total capacity)
  • Finland: 1 device
  • Spain: 2 devices (23.8 MW total capacity)

It’s great to see steady progress across electricity, gas, and now hydrogen, contributing to a more integrated and transparent GO market across Europe.

➑️ The AIB Annual Report is available via this link: ANNUAL REPORT 2024

Hydrogen Acceleration Act

Hydrogen Acceleration Act

Last week, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWK) presented the Draft Law for a new Hydrogen Acceleration Act (Wasserstoffbeschleunigungsgesetz).

πŸ“„ The Draft Law is available via this link.

βœ… Key Points:

πŸ“Œ Broader Scope Beyond Green Hydrogen

  • Unlike previous strategies focused solely on green hydrogen, the new Draft Law grants equal treatment to both green and blue hydrogen.
  • Projects producing blue H2 from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS) may now benefit from acceleration measures.

πŸ“Œ Support Across the Entire Hydrogen Value Chain

The Act aims to fast-track:

  • Electrolyser deployment
  • Hydrogen imports and derivatives (e.g., ammonia, methanol)
  • PtX plants for e-fuel production
  • Hydrogen storage and transport infrastructure

πŸ“Œ Natural Hydrogen Recognition

  • Natural hydrogen will be classified as a non-mineable mineral resource under the Federal Mining Act (Bundesberggesetz).
  • This change simplifies project development by removing the need for contracts with landownersβ€”similar to how resources like coal or natural gas are handled.

πŸ“Œ Accelerated Permitting

  • No public hearing (ErΓΆrterungstermin) will take place during the approval process.
  • A planning approval decision (Planfeststellungsbeschluss) must be issued within 12 months.
  • A planning permit (Plangenehmigung) must be granted within 7 months.

πŸ“… Consultation Period:

  • The BMWK is accepting feedback from federal states and industry associations until 28 July 2025.

Nuremberg Hydrogen Conference 2025

Nuremberg Hydrogen Conference 2025

On 14 July 2025, I had the pleasure of attending the Nuremberg Hydrogen Conference, hosted by the University of Technology Nuremberg.

The event brought together leading researchers, policymakers, and industry representatives to discuss the current state and future of the hydrogen economy in Germany and beyond.

βœ… Key takeaways:

πŸ“Œ AI and clean energy:

  • The growing energy demands of AI make clean hydrogen a key enabler for a sustainable digital future.

πŸ“Œ Speed of integration:

  • While oil and gas took ~50 years and renewables ~15 years to become integral to the energy system, hydrogen should achieve this in just 5 years β€” provided the right conditions are in place.

πŸ“Œ Hydrogen production costs (2023, EU grid-mix):

  • Lowest: Finland (€4.1/kg), Sweden (€4.4/kg)
  • Highest: Cyprus (€17.4/kg), Poland (€12.4/kg)

πŸ“Œ Barriers slowing hydrogen deployment:

  • Limited willingness to pay for H2
  • Market uncertainty and lack of demand aggregation
  • Permitting delays
  • Industry is still waiting for GW-scale proof and strong public support mechanisms.

πŸ“Œ Hydrogen imports remain slow, and it is important to create competition between demand and production side.

πŸ“Œ A clear market dynamic: as hydrogen prices rise, demand drops – and vice versa.

πŸ“Œ Two-sided auctions, such as those facilitated by H2Global, are a promising tool to stimulate both supply and demand and accelerate market ramp-up.

Delegated act for Low-Carbon Fuels

EU Regulation on Low-Carbon Hydrogen and Fuels

πŸ“’ New EU Regulation on Low-Carbon Hydrogen and Fuels

On 8 July 2025, the European Commission adopted a Delegated Regulation specifying the methodology for calculating GHG emissions savings from low-carbon fuels, including low-carbon hydrogen (the Delegated Act).

βœ… What is this about?

  • The Delegated Act establishes a GHG emissions methodology for low-carbon hydrogen and fuels, as outlined in the Hydrogen and Gas Market Directive.
  • It complements existing rules on renewable hydrogen and RFNBOs, creating a complete EU regulatory framework for hydrogen certification.

β˜‘οΈ Who does it apply to?

  • The Delegated Act applies to EU and non-EU producers wishing to place hydrogen on the EU market.
  • Certification can be achieved through Voluntary Schemes β€” third-party systems already in use for renewable fuels.

πŸ“… What happens next?

  • The Delegated Act will now be reviewed by the European Parliament and Council, who have 2 months to accept or reject it.
  • This scrutiny period may be extended by an additional 2 months, if requested.
  • If approved, the Delegated Act will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU.

πŸ“„ Delegated Act: Commission delegated regulation (EU) specifying a methodology for assessing greenhouse gas emissions savings from low-carbon fuels

➑️ Source: Clarity to hydrogen sector with new EU methodology for low-carbon hydrogen and fuels