Hydrogen Import & the European Hydrogen Bank

This weekend I dove into the report “Assistance in the development of an auction design and necessary pre-conditions for a European import auction for renewable hydrogen under the European Hydrogen Bank.”

The EHB is based on domestic and international pillars. While the domestic pillar for hydrogen production in the EU has already reached its third auction, the international pillar for hydrogen import is still under development. This report provides the groundwork for shaping a European import auction for renewable hydrogen and its derivatives.

My Key Takeaways:

1️⃣ Strategic recommendations:

  • The report outlines how to design RFNBO import auctions at EU level, based on hydrogen market analysis and lessons from existing/planned auction schemes in Europe and beyond.

2️⃣ Two case studies analyzed:

📌 Pipeline-based imports (pure hydrogen):

  • Can secure supply/offtake contracts between EU buyers and third-country producers in neighbouring regions.
  • Encourages pipeline investments.
  • Works via demand-side auction models to bridge funding gaps for RFNBO purchases, without assuming counterparty risks.

📌 Ship-based imports (derivatives: ammonia, methanol, eSAF):

  • Helps EU offtakers secure RFNBO volumes for hard-to-abate sectors and quota compliance.
  • Contributes to scaling up the global RFNBO market.

3️⃣ Contract terms

  • To scale import volumes effectively, the maturity transformation between purchase and sales agreements should be limited, with hydrogen sales agreements (HSAs) running for 2–5 years.

4️⃣ Auction design priorities

Import auctions should:

  • Bridge the cost gap between RFNBO production abroad and EU willingness to pay.
  • Accelerate market ramp-up.
  • Send a strong demand signal to international producers.
  • Strengthen cooperation among EU Member States.

💡 This report is an important step toward designing the EU’s approach for international hydrogen imports as a key enabler for the energy transition.

➡️ Source: European Commission: Directorate-General for Energy, Fraunhofer ISI and Guidehouse Germany GmbH, Assistance in the development of an auction design and necessary pre-conditions for a European import auction for renewable hydrogen under the European Hydrogen Bank – Final report, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2833/9380870

Methodology for assessing greenhouse gas emissions savings from low-carbon fuels

Report "Methodology for assessing greenhouse gas emissions savings from low-carbon fuels"

This report, prepared at the request of the European Parliament’s Committee on Industry, Research
and Energy (ITRE) reviews the draft Delegated Act (DA) on low-carbon fuels and addresses following questions:

🔹 Which production pathways are included?

  • The DA applies a technology-neutral, life-cycle approach.
  • Fuels must achieve at least a 70% reduction vs. the fossil comparator (94 gCO₂eq/MJ).
  • Both fossil pathways with CCS and electrolytic production routes for hydrogen production are eligible.
  • Nuclear-based electricity is also recognised.
  • Hydrogen leakage will be included once scientific consensus exists on its warming impact.

🔹 Does the DA enable the hydrogen economy?

  • The Delegated Act (DA) is a regulatory enabler, not a market driver.
  • The DA creates regulatory certainty via harmonised EU-wide accounting and certification, reducing investment risk and avoiding fragmented national rules.
  • The DA is not a demand-side driver, no targets or incentives are included.

🔹 Does the DA address fossil fuel emissions?

  • The DA incorporates methane CH₄ and CO₂ defaults but they are not strongly conservative.
  • LNG-specific values are missing, risking underestimation. Its effectiveness will hinge on strict enforcement and robust methane reporting.

🔹 Price & cost expectations

  • Blue H₂: 3.5–6.5 €/kg (costs depend on gas prices, CCS costs, and volatility).
  • Electrolytic H₂: 6–8 €/kg today; costs could fall <3 €/kg with cheaper electrolysers + low-carbon electricity.

➡️ Overall: The DA is an important regulatory enabler. It sets the rules for certification and trade but does not itself stimulate hydrogen demand.

➡️ Source: Report: Methodology for assessing greenhouse gas emissions savings from low-carbon fuels

IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2025

International Energy Agency Global Hydrogen Review 2025

The hydrogen sector is growing despite persistent barriers and project delays.

✅ Key Takeaways from the IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2025:

1️⃣ Global demand continues to rise

  • Hydrogen demand reached 100 Mt in 2024, up 2% from 2023.
  • Fossil fuels still dominate supply: 290 bcm natural gas and 90 Mtce coal equivalent.
  • Low-emissions hydrogen grew 10% in 2024, but remains <1% of total production.

2️⃣ Project delays and cancellations

  • Uptake of low-emissions hydrogen lags behind ambitions due to high costs, regulatory uncertainty, and slow infrastructure development.
  • The sector shows signs of maturity: 200+ low-emissions projects received FIDs since 2020, up from just a few demonstration projects.
  • Innovation across the value chain is strong.

3️⃣ Production outlook to 2030

  • Announced low-emissions projects have decreased from 49 Mtpa to 37 Mtpa due to delays and cancellations, mainly in electrolysis.
  • However, operational projects and projects reached FIDs could deliver 4.2 Mtpa by 2030, a fivefold increase from 2024.
  • An additional 6 Mtpa could come online by 2030 if effective policies and offtake mechanisms are implemented.

4️⃣ Costs and competitiveness

  • The cost gap between low-emissions hydrogen and fossil-based production remains a challenge, though expected to narrow by 2030.
  • China and Europe could see cost-competitive renewable hydrogen.
  • In the US and Middle East, CCUS for producing low-emissions hydrogen may remain more competitive in the near term.

5️⃣ Policy and demand signals

  • Momentum for hydrogen offtake agreements slowed in 2024: 1.7 Mtpa signed vs. 2.4 Mtpa in 2023.
  • Most agreements remain in refining, chemicals, shipping, and some aviation.
  • Policies to create demand are progressing but full impact will depend on implementation.
Global Hydrogen Review Summary Progress: Production, Electrolyser installed capacity, Announced electrolyser projects by 2030, Electrolyser manufacturing capacity, Announced electrolyser manufacturing capacity by 2030, Policies and Investment

Figure: Global Hydrogen Review Summary Progress

➡️ Source: Global Hydrogen Review 2025

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism simplifications

On 10 September, the European Parliament adopted simplifications to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

✅ Key Points

📌 Purpose: Reduce administrative burden, especially for SMEs and occasional importers.

📌 Context: Part of the “Omnibus I” simplification package (presented on 26 February 2025), covering sustainability and investment legislation.

📌 New de minimis threshold:

  • Imports up to 50 tonnes per importer per year exempted from CBAM.
  • Replaces the earlier exemption for goods of negligible value.
  • Exempts ~90% of importers (mainly SMEs and individuals).
  • ⚠️ Not applicable to hydrogen and electricity.

📌 Climate ambition unchanged:

  • 99% of emissions from CBAM goods (iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers) still covered.
  • Strengthened anti-abuse provisions to prevent circumvention.

📌 Simplifications for covered imports:

  • Streamlined authorisation process.
  • Simplified emissions calculation rules.
  • Adjusted verification rules.
  • Clearer financial liability for authorised CBAM declarants.

☑️ What’s next:

The Council must now officially endorse the text. It will enter into force three days after publication in the EU Official Journal.

📄 Adopted text: Link.

➡️ Source: CBAM: Parliament adopts simplifications to the EU carbon leakage instrument

Global clean hydrogen projects

Global clean hydrogen projects by project status

Figure: Global clean hydrogen projects by project status

Source: Hydrogen Council & McKinsey Project & Investment Tracker, as of December 2020, May 2022, May 2024 and July 2025

The global hydrogen sector is evolving, and this image from the Global Hydrogen Compass 2025, published by Hydrogen Council, illustrates the current landscape.

✅ Key Takeaways:

📌 The clean hydrogen project pipeline now includes 1,749 projects, of which 510 are committed —meaning they have taken FID, started construction, or begun operation. Over 80 projects were added in the past year.

📌 The overall hydrogen project pipeline has grown 7.5 times since 2020, with 214 net new projects added since May 2024, despite a slowdown in announcements.

📌 Europe leads in the number of projects with commercial operation dates (CODs) by 2030, followed by North America and China.

📌 Around 70% of committed projects are renewable, with just under half located in Europe.

📌 While Europe focuses on developing infrastructure and demand centers for an import-oriented hydrogen industry, China’s renewable projects are on average 10 times larger.

📌 A higher share of Chinese projects (50%) are already FID+ compared to Europe (30%) and North America (35%). Early-stage projects in China may be undercounted due to lower public visibility.

➡️ Source: Global Hydrogen Compass 2025, Hydrogen Council

Case studies on hydrogen produced from biomass

Synergies of green hydrogen and biobased value chains deployment. Report WP2: Case studies on hydrogen produced from biomass

The new report “Synergies of green hydrogen and biobased value chains deployment. Report WP2: Case studies on hydrogen produced from biomass” was released by the Inter-Task Project Synergies of Green Hydrogen and Biobased Value Chains.

The report explores technology options for producing biomass-based hydrogen (biohydrogen) and their respective technology readiness levels.

✅ Regulatory context

  • It is important to underline that biohydrogen does not qualify as renewable hydrogen or renewable fuel of non-biological origin (RFNBO) under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), since biomass is explicitly excluded from the definition of RFNBO.
  • RED III: ‘renewable fuels of non-biological origin’ means liquid and gaseous fuels the energy content of which is derived from renewable sources other than biomass;
  • Nevertheless, the report provides valuable insights into how different biomass conversion technologies could contribute to hydrogen and commodity production.
Main conversion processes to produce hydrogen from biomass sources

Figure: Main conversion processes to produce hydrogen from biomass sources (based on Buffi et.al 2022)

Source: Report “Synergies of green hydrogen and biobased value chains deployment”

☑️ Key findings of the report

  • Biohydrogen can be produced through several conversion routes, using a wide range of biogenic feedstocks.
  • Feedstock options vary from low-grade materials (wastewater, forestry and agricultural residues) to higher quality feedstocks (bioethanol, biomethane).
  • Many production concepts deliver additional co-products, such as biochar, biocarbon, or biomethane, and in some cases CO₂ streams that could enable negative emissions.
  • Case studies provide detailed assessments of technology readiness, economic fundamentals, climate impacts, and their potential role in the energy system.

✅ Status of development

  • All production concepts examined remain at the development stage (TRL 4–7) and none has yet reached full commercialization.
  • The report highlights both the opportunities and the barriers for scaling these technologies.

☑️ Takeaway

  • While biohydrogen will not play a role in fulfilling RED III targets for RFNBO, it may provide complementary pathways for decarbonisation and resource efficiency, particularly if integrated into biobased value chains with multiple outputs.

➡️ Source: Report “Synergies of green hydrogen and biobased value chains deployment”

Potential for hydrogen trade

Potential for hydrogen trade

Figure: Percentage of demand for hydrogen and related commodities met by imports

Source: The potential for green hydrogen and related commodities trade

🌍 Around 20% of global hydrogen demand is expected to be met through international trade – with the remaining 80% produced locally, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

✅ But the picture varies significantly across regions:

  • Japan & South Korea may import up to 90% of their green hydrogen needs.
  • EU expects imports to cover around 30%.
  • Canada foresees only about 4% reliance on imports.

These differences underline the importance of tailored policies and strategies to match each country’s energy landscape.

➡️ Source: IRENA (2025), Analysis of the potential for green hydrogen and related commodities trade, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

The Origins of Power-to-X concept

Sector coupling resulted from Power-to-Gas and Power-to-X. It links the sectors of electricity, heat, transport and industry via energy storage and energy converters and using renewable electricity as ‘primary energy’ for ecarbonization. Power-to-Heat, Power-to-Gas, Power-to-Liquid,  Power-to-Chemicals, Power-to-Products.

Figure: Sector coupling resulted from Power-to-Gas and Power-to-X

Source: Sterner, M.; Stadler, I. Handbook of Energy Storage: Demand, Technologies, Integration; Springer: Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, 2018; ISBN 978-3-662-55503-3

The term “Power-to-X” is now widely used in the energy sector. This concept is less than 20 years old.

The idea of producing fuels from renewable electricity emerged in Germany in the early 2010s. What began as Power-to-Gas (PtG) has since evolved into the broader Power-to-X (PtX) approach.

✅ Key milestones in its development:

📌 2008 – Integrated Energy System Concept:

  • Coupled electricity and gas with CO₂ sinks;
  • Introduced Power-to-Gas via electrolyzers producing green hydrogen.

📌 2008 – European Biomass Conference:

  • Presented integrated electricity-gas-CO₂ systems;
  • Proposed the Sabatier process for CO₂ methanation instead of the reformer for the better integrability of hydrogen in the natural gas grid.

📌 2009 – Breakthroughs:

  • Patent application for PtG, first PhD thesis on the topic, and
  • The PtG plant for CO2 methanation – SolarFuel GmbH.

📌 2013/14 – Shift to Power-to-X:

  • The concept was expanded beyond gas to include fuels, chemicals, and heat — enabling decarbonization where direct electrification isn’t enough.

🎯 Main Purpose of PtX: To store renewable energy and decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors through fuels, chemicals, and other energy carriers.

➡️ Source: Sterner M., Specht M. “Power-to-Gas and Power-to-X – The History and Results of Developing a New Storage Concept”

Pacific Northwest Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis

Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis. Federal Initiatives across the Canada and the United States. Canada and United States support initiatives and value chain applicability

Figure: Canada and United States support initiatives and value chain applicability

Source: New report: Pacific Northwest Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis

Pacific Northwest Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis, published by The Pacific Northwest Economic Region (PNWER), provides a comprehensive view of supply, demand and trade opportunities for low-carbon hydrogen between the US and Canada.

✅ Some takeaways

📌 Canada:

  • has a total of 19 direct or indirect support programs available to accelerate the development and deployment of hydrogen technologies and industry across the value chain.
  • Tax measures such as the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit (ITC), Clean Technology ITC, Clean Technology Manufacturing ITC, and the Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) ITC are complemented by funding programs such as the Clean Fuels Fund and Strategic Innovation Fund – Net-Zero Accelerator.

📌 The US:

  • has a total of 34 direct or indirect federal programs and initiatives across multiple national departments and agencies, which enable the use of hydrogen across the value chain.
  • The US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates the blending of renewable fuels into the supply of transportation fuels, with an aim at reducing overall GHG emissions from the sector. While the RFS primarily focuses on biofuels, it also includes provisions for hydrogen derived from renewable feedstocks, like biomass, which generates an economic incentive for the transportation sector to include low-carbon hydrogen in its pathways to decarbonization.

➡️ Source: New report: Pacific Northwest Low-Carbon Hydrogen Analysis

African Green Hydrogen Report

African Green Hydrogen Report

African Green Hydrogen Report, published by GIZ, is available via this link.

✅ Some key takeaways

📌 Export Potential:

  • Several African countries are developing ambitious green hydrogen export strategies aimed at European and Asian markets.
  • Tunisia, Namibia, Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa aim to have annual exports of more than 20 million tons of green hydrogen equivalent by 2050.

📌 Policy and regulation:

  • By February 2025, eight African countries – Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa and Tunisia – have adopted hydrogen strategies and/or roadmaps.
  • Main challenge is a lack of the required comprehensive regulatory frameworks to translate these strategies into action.

📌 Financing projects:

  • Almost 80% of the public funding for GH2 projects in Africa came from Europe, with Germany accounting for 13% of total funding.
  • Only a small fraction of announced large-scale African hydrogen projects have reached final investment decisions.

📌 Sustainability considerations:

  • Electricity and water sustainability are key concerns for green hydrogen projects, particularly in arid regions.
  • As environmental standards evolve, emerging certification schemes demand strict water use, land access, and emissions compliance.