Clean Energy Technology Observatory
Clean Energy Technology Observatory: Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin in the European Union – 2025 Status Report on Technology Development, Trends, Value Chains and Markets
✅ Some Key Takeaways:
📌 Technology status
- RFNBO production technologies involve electrolysers and the downstream conversion of renewable hydrogen into synthetic fuels, mostly based on established industrial processes using fossil-based inputs, now adapted for renewable hydrogen and captured carbon CO2 or N2 as feedstocks.
- Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) vary from 5–7 for innovative variants, up to 8–9 for commercially ready pathways like e-methanol and e-CH₄.
- Most RFNBO technologies are at pilot or early commercial scale, with no fundamental technical barriers, but with substantial economic and infrastructure challenges to overcome.
- Installed capacity remains modest, with approximately 35 operational e-methane plants in 2024 and total EU e-fuel capacity below 0.5 Mt/year, although project pipelines (45 announced e-kerosene (SAF) projects and several Power-to-X (PtX) hubs) are expected to expand capacity to a few hundred thousand tons per year by 2030.
- Cost trends indicate strong learning effects: CAPEX for synthesis plants is projected to decrease by 30–35% by 2050. By 2030, several studies estimated production costs at €1.6–2.3 per litre of diesel equivalent for e-methanol and over €3.5 per litre for Fischer–Tropsch fuels, but the current trend could push these costs higher.
📌 Investment and funding
- Public funding for research and innovation under Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe has reached €200 million for over 40 projects, focused on RFNBO production.
- Other EU initiatives can also indirectly finance RFNBO projects by leveraging complementary funding streams, EU public support for innovation readiness, and private capital for commercialisation and scale-up.
- Commercial-scale projects still rely heavily on public guarantees and offtake agreements.
📌 Value chain
- The RFNBO value chain integrates renewable hydrogen production, CO2/N2 capture, chemical synthesis, and fuel distribution, spanning multiple industrial sectors.
- Early deployment is concentrated in Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Spain.
- The economic potential is considerable: RFNBO could contribute over €40–60 billion annually to the EU economy by 2040, creating up to 200,000 direct and indirect jobs in the hydrogen, chemical, and transport sectors.
📌 EU positioning and global competitiveness
- The EU maintains global leadership in RFNBO research, demonstration, and regulatory frameworks, but lags behind the US and China in commercial scale-up.
- Under the Net-Zero Industry Act, the EU aims to secure 40% domestic production of strategic net-zero emission technologies by 2030.