Revision of the EU Hydrogen Strategy for Industry

During my recent application process, I was asked to prepare a presentation on the revision of the EU Hydrogen Strategy.

In the end, another candidate turned out to be a better fit for the role. That happens, and it’s part of any competitive process.

At the same time, I remain confident that my qualifications and the strategic depth of my presentation were very strong. The task clearly demonstrated my ability to develop a structured, forward-looking policy strategy, grounded in regulation, market realities, and industrial needs.

This exercise itself confirmed something important for me: the revision of the EU Hydrogen Strategy will be a decisive moment for Europe’s industrial decarbonisation.

So I’d like to briefly share a few reflections.

Since the adoption of the EU Hydrogen Strategy in 2020, we’ve seen:

  • strong political ambition,
  • an impressive number of project announcements,
  • but still too few final investment decisions.

This gap is no longer about vision. It’s about implementation, prioritisation, and bankability, and this is where strategic policy design becomes critical.

Looking ahead, a revised EU Hydrogen Strategy should focus less on targets alone and more on:

  • investment security and risk-sharing instruments
  • real demand creation and offtake certainty
  • simpler and more predictable rules for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen
  • alignment with the Clean Industrial Deal and industrial competitiveness
  • an effective international dimension, including imports and certification.

Hydrogen remains essential for hard-to-electrify industrial sectors. Its strategic role hasn’t diminished, but the policy framework now needs to mature from ambition to delivery.

Grateful for the opportunity to think this through and always happy to exchange views with others working on Europe’s hydrogen future.

The Energy Transition Investment Trends Report

BloombergNEF. Global energy transition investment by sector, 2020-2025

Figure: Global energy transition investment by sector, 2020-2025

Source: BloombergNEF

The Energy Transition Investment Trends (ETIT) Report, released by BloombergNEF (BNEF), finds that global investment in the energy transition reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, up 8% from the prior year.

✅ Main Takeaways:

📌 The largest investment drivers were:

  • electrified transport – $893 billion;
  • renewable energy – $690 billion;
  • grid investment – $483 billion.

📌 Renewable energy investment fell 9.5% year-on-year due to changing power market regulations in China.

📌 Hydrogen ($7.3 billon) and nuclear ($36 billion) saw investment drop in 2025. All other sectors grew: energy storage ($71 billion), CCS ($6.6 billion), clean shipping ($4.2 billion), electrified heat ($84 billion) and clean industry ($34 billion).

📌 Clean energy supply investment outpaced fossil fuel supply for a second consecutive year in 2025, with the gap widening to $102 billion from $85 billion in 2024.

📌 While clean energy investment continued to grow, fossil fuel supply investment fell for the first time since 2020, declining by $9 billion year-on-year.

📌 Despite energy transition investment being at an all-time high, growth has slowed steadily, from 27% in 2021 to 8% in 2025.

📌 The regional changes:

  • China ($800 billion) is posting its first decline in investment since 2013.
  • The EU shrugged off headwinds to grow 18% to $455 billion, contributing the most to the global uptick.
  • US investment also moved up 3.5% to $378 billion, despite the Trump administration’s moves to slow the energy transition.

➡️ Source: BloombergNEF Finds Global Energy Transition Investment Reached Record $2.3 Trillion in 2025, Up 8% from 2024

Clean Energy Technology Observatory

Clean Energy Technology Observatory: Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin in the European Union - 2025 Status Report on Technology Development, Trends, Value Chains and Markets

Clean Energy Technology Observatory: Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin in the European Union – 2025 Status Report on Technology Development, Trends, Value Chains and Markets

✅ Some Key Takeaways:

📌 Technology status

  • RFNBO production technologies involve electrolysers and the downstream conversion of renewable hydrogen into synthetic fuels, mostly based on established industrial processes using fossil-based inputs, now adapted for renewable hydrogen and captured carbon CO2 or N2 as feedstocks.
  • Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) vary from 5–7 for innovative variants, up to 8–9 for commercially ready pathways like e-methanol and e-CH₄.
  • Most RFNBO technologies are at pilot or early commercial scale, with no fundamental technical barriers, but with substantial economic and infrastructure challenges to overcome.
  • Installed capacity remains modest, with approximately 35 operational e-methane plants in 2024 and total EU e-fuel capacity below 0.5 Mt/year, although project pipelines (45 announced e-kerosene (SAF) projects and several Power-to-X (PtX) hubs) are expected to expand capacity to a few hundred thousand tons per year by 2030.
  • Cost trends indicate strong learning effects: CAPEX for synthesis plants is projected to decrease by 30–35% by 2050. By 2030, several studies estimated production costs at €1.6–2.3 per litre of diesel equivalent for e-methanol and over €3.5 per litre for Fischer–Tropsch fuels, but the current trend could push these costs higher.

📌 Investment and funding

  • Public funding for research and innovation under Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe has reached €200 million for over 40 projects, focused on RFNBO production.
  • Other EU initiatives can also indirectly finance RFNBO projects by leveraging complementary funding streams, EU public support for innovation readiness, and private capital for commercialisation and scale-up.
  • Commercial-scale projects still rely heavily on public guarantees and offtake agreements.

📌 Value chain

  • The RFNBO value chain integrates renewable hydrogen production, CO2/N2 capture, chemical synthesis, and fuel distribution, spanning multiple industrial sectors.
  • Early deployment is concentrated in Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Spain.
  • The economic potential is considerable: RFNBO could contribute over €40–60 billion annually to the EU economy by 2040, creating up to 200,000 direct and indirect jobs in the hydrogen, chemical, and transport sectors.

📌 EU positioning and global competitiveness

  • The EU maintains global leadership in RFNBO research, demonstration, and regulatory frameworks, but lags behind the US and China in commercial scale-up.
  • Under the Net-Zero Industry Act, the EU aims to secure 40% domestic production of strategic net-zero emission technologies by 2030.

➡️ Source: Clean Energy Technology Observatory: Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin in the European Union – 2025 Status Report on Technology Development, Trends, Value Chains and Markets

German Aid for Canadian Renewable H2

European Commission approves German Aid for Canadian Renewable Hydrogen

📢 New funding opportunities for hydrogen projects in Canada.

The European Commission has approved a €200 million German State aid scheme to support the production of renewable hydrogen and its derivatives (RFNBOs) in Canada for supply to the EU market.

✅ Key elements of the German support scheme:

📌 Germany notified the Commission of a €200 million support programme, complemented by an additional €200 million in Canadian funding, to enable cost-efficient RFNBO production in Canada.

📌 The scheme aims to incentivise the construction of up to 300 MW of electrolysis capacity through a competitive bidding process, expected to conclude in 2027.

📌 It is based on a double auction model, matching RFNBO producers in Canada with buyers in the EU. Producers offering the lowest supply price and buyers offering the highest offtake price will enter into a contractual relationship with State resources helping to fill the funding gap between the two prices.

📌 Beneficiaries must demonstrate full compliance with EU RFNBO sustainability and certification criteria, as defined in the delegated acts on renewable hydrogen.

📌 The scheme is expected to avoid up to 2.47 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions.

➡️ Source: Commission approves €200 million German State aid for Canadian-produced renewable hydrogen and its derivatives for EU market

Public consultation for bilateral German-Australian H2Global funding window

Public consultation for bilateral German-Australian H2Global funding window

The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) has launched a public market consultation under the Climate, Energy and Environmental Aid Guidelines (CEEAG) requirements for the German–Australian bilateral H2Global funding window (2030–2041/42).

🗓 Deadline to submit feedback: 16 February 2026

☑️ Why Australia?

In September 2023, Germany and Australia signed a Joint Declaration of Intent as part of their energy partnership. A key element of this cooperation is the development of a joint auction for green hydrogen products, implemented under the H2Global double auction model.

The objective is clear:

  • support the global market ramp-up of green hydrogen;
  • provide secure long-term offtake agreements;
  • send reliable price signals to producers and buyers.

Germany will provide up to EUR 200 million from the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF). The Australian government, represented by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, will contribute an equivalent amount.

As a result, the total support budget of the bilateral H2Global auction amounts to EUR 400 million. Based on the assumption that the auction will focus on renewable ammonia, with production prices in the range of EUR 1,100–1,600 per tonne and expected offtake prices between EUR 500–900 per tonne, this budget could enable the procurement of up to 360,000 tonnes of renewable ammonia.

✅ Why this consultation matters

The international hydrogen ramp-up has been constrained by well-known challenges, such as high production costs for renewable hydrogen and limited willingness to pay on the demand side.

The planned German–Australian auction aims to address these by sharing the “difference costs” equally between both sides.

To properly design the auction and ensure compliance with EU state aid rules, BMWE is conducting this public market consultation and explicitly invites all affected companies to participate.

📄 The questionnaire (in English), outlining the measure and the specific questions, is available via the consultation link.

➡️ Source: Market consultation for the Bilateral German-Australian H2Global funding window

Fitness Check on EU Energy Security

The European Commission has just published a ‘fitness check’ of EU legislation on electricity and gas security of supply, looking both at past performance and what lies ahead. The document acknowledges that energy security in the EU will look very different in a decarbonised, electrified and geopolitically changed energy system.

✅ Key future developments include:

  • The evolving role of electricity and natural gas in a highly electrified, integrated energy system.
  • Protecting consumers and critical energy needs amid electrification and the phase-out of natural gas.
  • The growing role of new energy carriers such as biomethane and hydrogen.
  • Diversification of supply in response to geopolitical shifts and a stronger focus on homegrown clean energy.
  • The importance of critical raw materials for resilient clean-tech supply chains.
  • The increasing impact of climate change on EU energy security.

☑️ These points are clarified by the following:

📌 The energy transition will have a profound effect on the future security of gas and electricity supply. Phasing out imported fossil fuels and instead relying on homegrown renewable energy sources will have a substantial positive impact on the EU’s energy security. At the same time, a more electrified and decarbonised energy system requires a different management approach, with greater flexibility.

📌 Biomethane will become increasingly relevant for energy security. Under the Hydrogen and Decarbonised Gas Package, biomethane is now explicitly included in the definition of “natural gas”, meaning the Gas Security of Supply Regulation will apply to it from 2025 onwards. However, biomethane has very different characteristics compared to fossil gas: seasonal production, strong reliance on local resources, and predominantly decentralised injection into distribution grids. Importantly, biomethane-fired generation is still expected to contribute to electricity security by 2050 by providing flexible backup for variable renewables.

📌 Hydrogen will also become important for the future energy security framework, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, and as a source of flexibility for the power system. Long-term storage, e-gases and e-fuels can all support security of supply. However, hydrogen will not simply “replace” natural gas. Its system role will be fundamentally different, and the deployment of electrolysers must be carefully aligned with grid capacities and broader decarbonisation pathways.

Overall, this ‘fitness check’ makes one thing very clear:

  • Energy security is no longer just about conventional fuels;
  • Energy security is about system design, flexibility, resilience, and smart regulation.

➡️ Source: Commission publishes “fitness check” on EU laws covering the security of electricity and gas supply in view of future revision

Germany’s national Power-to-Liquid quotas

Germany’s national Power-to-Liquid quotas

As part of my research, I closely follow recent developments regarding Germany’s national Power-to-Liquid (PtL) quotas for aviation and would like to share the key updates with you.

🔹 What do PtL quotas mean?

Power-to-Liquids (PtL) refers to liquid hydrocarbons produced using electricity, water, and CO₂ as inputs. Based on these characteristics, PtL quotas cover targets and obligations for hydrogen-based fuels, such as e-SAF for aviation.

🔹 What happened in Germany?

  • In September 2021, Germany adopted ambitious PtL quotas for aviation through amendments to the Federal Immission Control Act (BImSchG).
  • These mandatory national quotas required a minimum share of RFNBOs in aviation fuel of:
    • 0.5% in 2026
    • 1% in 2028
    • 2% in 2030.
  • The basis for adopting such ambitious quotas was the German PtL roadmap for aviation fuels, published in April 2021.
  • However, these national PtL quotas were more ambitious than those established under the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which introduces a minimum PtL sub-quota only from 2030 onwards.
  • As a result, the European Commission opposed the German national quotas, emphasizing the binding nature of ReFuelEU Aviation as an EU regulation that replaces national PtL quotas for aviation.

🔹 How was this PtL quota issue resolved?

  • In October 2024, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMUV) announced revisions to the national PtL quotas for aviation.
  • In June 2025, BMUV published the Draft Law for a Second Law on the Further Development of the GHG Reduction Quota (the Draft Law on the GHG Reduction Quota), proposing the removal of national PtL quotas for aviation from the BImSchG.
  • In December 2025, the national PtL quotas for aviation were formally abolished through the Draft Law on Accelerating the Expansion of Geothermal Energy Plants, Heat Pumps and Heat Storage Facilities, and on Amending Other Legal Framework Conditions for the Climate-Neutral Expansion of Heat Supply.

➡️ The German PtL quota will expire on January 1, 2026.

✅ What’s next?

The PtL quotas for aviation are included in the Draft Law on the GHG Reduction Quota and will be based on the minimum share of e-SAF set out in the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation.

If you have any questions about PtL quotas, I’d be happy to discuss them.

🔗 The Draft Law: Gesetz zur Beschleunigung des Ausbaus von Geothermieanlagen, Wärmepumpen und Wärmespeichern und zur Änderung weiterer rechtlicher Rahmenbedingungen für den klimaneutralen Ausbau der Wärmeversorgung sowie zur Änderung des Baugesetzbuchs und zur Änderung des BundesImmissionsschutzgesetzes

🔗 Source: Bundesrat beschließt Abschaffung der nationalen PtL-Quote

Modernisation Fund

On 17 December 2025, the European Commission and the European Investment Bank announced the disbursement of €1.8 billion from the Modernisation Fund to support 45 clean energy-related investments in 12 different Member States, including Portugal, which became a beneficiary Member State in 2024.

Financed by revenues from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), this brings total Modernisation Fund support to €20.7 billion for 294 investments since 2021. In 2025 alone, €5.46 billion has been disbursed to 79 projects, following an earlier allocation of €3.66 billion in July.

✅ What is the Modernisation Fund?

📌 The Modernisation Fund, funded by revenues from the auctioning of emission allowances under the EU ETS, aims to support 13 lower-income EU countries in their transition to climate neutrality.

📌 The beneficiary Member States are Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, as well as Greece, Portugal and Slovenia which became eligible for support as of January 2024, under the revised EU ETS Directive.

📌 The Modernisation Fund supports investments in the generation and use of energy from renewable sources, energy efficiency, energy storage, modernisation of energy networks, including district heating, grids, and just transition in carbon-dependent regions.

📌 It operates under the responsibility of the beneficiary countries in close cooperation with the European Commission and the European Investment Bank.

📅 Next deadlines

The next deadlines for beneficiary Member States to submit investment proposals under the Modernisation Fund are:

  • 15 January 2026 for non-priority proposals
  • 12 February 2026 for priority proposals.

➡️ Source: Joint press release: Modernisation Fund announces €1.8 billion in new clean energy investments, bringing 5-year total to over €20 billion

Innovation Fund in Transport Sector

How the Innovation Fund Supports the Decarbonisation of the EU Transport Sector

In a recent publication, the European Commission presented a factsheet on projects supported by the Innovation Fund, with total funding exceeding €4.8 billion.

✅ What is the Innovation Fund?

The Innovation Fund:

  • is one of the EU’s key financial instruments for deploying net-zero and innovative technologies.
  • is funded by revenues from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and supports the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors.
  • provides grants to breakthrough projects across a wide range of sectors in the European Economic Area (EEA).

☑️ What technologies in the transport sector does the Innovation Fund support?

  • the production and use of sustainable fuels
  • the electrification of transport systems
  • the manufacturing and recycling of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs)
  • the construction and retrofitting of low- and zero-carbon ships, aircraft, and heavy-duty vehicles

✅ Key Takeaways:

📌 Out of 272 ongoing and awarded projects, more than one-third focus on transport decarbonisation, receiving around one-third of total grants (€4.8 billion).

📌 Transport-related projects are expected to deliver approximately 29% of the Innovation Fund’s total emission reductions during their first ten years of operation, cutting 334 million tonnes of CO2.

📌 The largest share of mobility projects in the Innovation Fund portfolio relates to fuel production (47 projects). More than 45% of these projects are expected to supply their output exclusively to the transport sector, while the remainder plan to serve multiple off-takers, with transport among the key beneficiaries.

➡️ Source: Driving decarbonisation in mobility through the innovation fund

Updates about RED III and ReFuelEU Aviation in Germany

Updates about Transposition of RED III and ReFuelEU Aviation in Germany

On 10 December, the German Federal Cabinet approved the draft of a Second Law on the Further Development of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Quota.

This quota, as the central legal instrument for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fuels, shall gradually make refueling more climate-friendly. It specifies the extent to which fuel suppliers must reduce CO2 emissions by using sustainable biofuels, renewable hydrogen-based fuels, or electricity for electric vehicles.

➡️ The Draft of Law is available via this link: Entwurf eines Zweiten Gesetzes zur Weiterentwicklung der Treibhausgasminderungs-Quote

✅ Key Points of the Draft Law:

📌 The draft law implements the amendments to the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), whose targets must be achieved by 2030. To provide greater investment security, the German government extends the timeline to 2040, going beyond the RED III, to support long-term corporate investment planning.

📌 The law serves to implement the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation at the national level with regard to fuels.

📌 The draft law includes amendments to the Federal Immission Control Act (BImSchG) and the Regulation on the crediting of electricity-based fuels and co-processed biogenic oils towards the greenhouse gas quota (37th BImSchV).

📌 It introduces definitions of aviation fuel suppliers and distributors, as well as penalties for aviation fuel suppliers that fail to comply with their obligations under the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation with regard to the share of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF):

  • EUR 4,700 per tonne for SAF
  • EUR 17,000 per tonne for synthetic aviation fuels or e-SAF.

📌 It defines the eligibility criteria for e-SAF and renewable hydrogen for aviation.

📌 It establishes minimum shares of RFNBOs for fuel suppliers (excluding aviation fuel suppliers):

  • 0.1% from 2026
  • 0.5% from 2028
  • 1.2% from 2030
  • 1.5% from 2032
  • 2.5% from 2034
  • 4.0% from 2036
  • 5.0% from 2037
  • 6.0% from 2038
  • 7.0% from 2039
  • 8.0% from 2040

☑️ Next Steps:

  • The law will enter into force on the second day after its publication in the Federal Law Gazette.
  • The Draft Law must now be submitted to the Federal Council (Bundesrat) and the German Bundestag for debate. Approval by the Federal Council is not required. However, the Bundestag may still introduce amendments.
  • After adoption by the Bundestag, the law can be submitted to the Federal President for signature and then published.
  • The legislative process is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026.

🔗 Source: Klimafreundlicher tanken, neue Nachfrage für grünen Wasserstoff: Bundesregierung beschließt Gesetzesnovelle zur Treibhausgasminderungs-Quote